Ahead of CES, Microsoft is hoping that 80% of businesses will upgrade to Windows 11 until the end of the year

In the advent of CES 2025, Microsoft is declaring 2025 the year of the Windows 11 PC refresh in a new blog post. After 2024 was the year of the AI PC, the expectations and hopes are pretty high, even though Windows 11’s market share has been declining for the last two months of the last year.

As CES 2025 begins, showcasing the latest innovations in technology, we are excited for the advancements our industry will offer to people around the globe. The momentum and innovation across the Windows ecosystem will make 2025 a new year of possibility for our customers. And we believe that one of the most important pieces of technology people will look to refresh in 2025 isn’t the refrigerator, the television or their mobile phone. It will be their Windows 10 PC, and they will move forward with Windows 11.

Microsoft has high expectations for Windows 11 in 2025

It was a rough end for Windows 11 with Microsoft blocking 24H2 updates for millions of gamers due to the Auto HDR bug and leaving aside a BitLocker vulnerability that may end up damaging many organization’s networks.

Microsoft’s hopes for Windows 11 increased adoption is based on an IDC report released in June 2024 that is making a bold prediction. According to the study, approximately 80% of organizations are planning to upgrade their devices by the end of 2025 and 70% of consumers will do the same in the next two years:

According to IDC, nearly 80% of businesses are planning to refresh their PC portfolio by the end of 2025, and 70% of consumers will refresh their PCs in the next two years, emphasizing the increasing demand for secure, advanced AI-enabled hardware that Windows 11 PCs provide. And, with new apps added every day, developers are harnessing the power of AI to bring innovative experiences to Windows 11 and Copilot+ PCs, such as ChatGPT and our native Copilot app. Windows 11 app experiences will continue to evolve, providing even greater functionality and clear benefits for our customers. Source: Microsoft Blogs

However, in June, according to StatCounter data, in June, Windows 11 was showing a big market share increase from 27.67% to 29.75% while Windows 10’s was declining in the same rhythm. Back then, everyone was very excited by Copilot and AI PCs holding the flag for what most of us believed that would drive up the Windows 11 adoption.

The 24H2 update bugs and the Windows Recall privacy conundrum and delays didn’t help Windows 11 at all, bringing down the user trust level of the OS.

While the Snapdragon X Elite AI PCs turned out to be not quite on par with the native Windows native apps, that situation was highly improved with a software upgrade and now it’s a lot easier for developers to create new apps and adapt their software for the ARM based Windows 11 devices.

In the second half of 2024, the first AI PCs with Intel and AMD CPUs also reached the market, launching a real battle for the new devices. Most likely, we will see even more AI PCs from the giant manufacturers, and Microsoft will back up their efforts during CES 2025.

Intel is excited to partner with Microsoft to continue to advance AI-driven innovation, enhanced security and superior performance into 2025. Copilot+ PCs powered by Intel Core Ultra 200V processors deliver on all these fronts, creating a compelling upgrade for consumers and businesses. Jim Johnson, Senior Vice President, Interim General Manager, Client Computing Group, Intel

The predictions from IDC may seem unlikely to fulfill right now, but maybe the new AI PCs will drive up the Windows 11 adoption, mostly because many organizations were reluctant in switching to the new ARM platform. However, now they will have plenty of alternatives from Intel and AMD which offer a continuation for their trust in the X86 more stable environment for Windows 11 OS and apps.

Certainly, 2025 will be an exciting year for Windows 11, especially if Microsoft will continue their efforts to fix its problems and restore the user trust. Whether or not 70% of users will upgrade to Windows 11 in the next 2 years, that is not a very promising deadline since Windows 10 will reach the end of support in October 2025. You have the option to prolong the Windows 10 support for 30$ for the next 3 years, but how many users will do that?

What do you think about Microsoft’s predictions? Let’s talk about this in the comments below.